Bayesian Bootstrap Inference for the ROC Surface

Accurate diagnosis of disease is of great importance in clinical practice and medical research. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface is a popular tool for evaluating the discriminatory ability of continuous diagnostic test outcomes when there exist three ordered disease classes (e.g., no disease, mild disease, advanced disease). We propose the Bayesian bootstrap, a fully nonparametric method, for conducting inference about the ROC surface and its functionals, such as the volume under the surface. The proposed method is based on a simple, yet interesting, representation of the ROC surface in terms of placement variables. Results from a simulation study demonstrate the ability of our method to successfully recover the true ROC surface and to produce valid inferences in a variety of complex scenarios. An application to data from the Trail Making Test to assess cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease patients is provided

Development of a clinical decision model for thyroid nodules

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Thyroid nodules represent a common problem brought to medical attention. Four to seven percent of the United States adult population (10–18 million people) has a palpable thyroid nodule, however the majority (>95%) of thyroid nodules are benign. While, fine needle aspiration remains the most cost effective and accurate diagnostic tool for thyroid nodules in current practice, over 20% of patients undergoing FNA of a thyroid nodule have indeterminate cytology (follicular neoplasm) with associated malignancy risk prevalence of 20–30%. These patients require thyroid lobectomy/isthmusectomy purely for the purpose of attaining a definitive diagnosis. Given that the majority (70–80%) of these patients have benign surgical pathology, thyroidectomy in these patients is conducted principally with diagnostic intent. Clinical models predictive of malignancy risk are needed to support treatment decisions in patients with thyroid nodules in order to reduce morbidity associated with unnecessary diagnostic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were analyzed from a completed prospective cohort trial conducted over a 4-year period involving 216 patients with thyroid nodules undergoing ultrasound (US), electrical impedance scanning (EIS) and fine needle aspiration cytology (FNA) prior to thyroidectomy. A Bayesian model was designed to predict malignancy in thyroid nodules based on multivariate dependence relationships between independent covariates. Ten-fold cross-validation was performed to estimate classifier error wherein the data set was randomized into ten separate and unique train and test sets consisting of a training set (90% of records) and a test set (10% of records). A receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve of these predictions and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated to determine model robustness for predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thyroid nodule size, FNA cytology, US and EIS characteristics were highly predictive of malignancy. Cross validation of the model created with Bayesian Network Analysis effectively predicted malignancy [AUC = 0.88 (95%CI: 0.82–0.94)] in thyroid nodules. The positive and negative predictive values of the model are 83% (95%CI: 76%–91%) and 79% (95%CI: 72%–86%), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An integrated predictive decision model using Bayesian inference incorporating readily obtainable thyroid nodule measures is clinically relevant, as it effectively predicts malignancy in thyroid nodules. This model warrants further validation testing in prospective clinical trials.</p

Upper abdominal body shape is the risk factor for postoperative pancreatic fistula after splenectomy for advanced gastric cancer: A retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Postoperative pancreas fistula (POPF) is a major complication after total gastrectomy with splenectomy. We retrospectively studied the effects of upper abdominal shape on the development of POPF after gastrectomy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fifty patients who underwent total gastrectomy with splenectomy were studied. The maximum vertical distance measured by computed tomography (CT) between the anterior abdominal skin and the back skin (U-APD) and the maximum horizontal distance of a plane at a right angle to U-APD (U-TD) were measured at the umbilicus. The distance between the anterior abdominal skin and the root of the celiac artery (CAD) and the distance of a horizontal plane at a right angle to CAD (CATD) were measured at the root of the celiac artery. The CA depth ratio (CAD/CATD) was calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>POPF occurred in 7 patients (14.0%) and was associated with a higher BMI, longer CAD, and higher CA depth ratio. However, CATD, U-APD, and U-TD did not differ significantly between patients with and those without POPF. Logistic-regression analysis revealed that a high BMI (≥25) and a high CA depth ratio (≥0.370) independently predicted the occurrence of POPF (odds ratio = 19.007, p = 0.002; odds ratio = 13.656, p = 0.038, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Surgical procedures such as total gastrectomy with splenectomy should be very carefully executed in obese patients or patients with a deep abdominal cavity to decrease the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula. BMI and body shape can predict the risk of POPF simply by CT.</p

Genes, Environments, and Developmental Research: Methods for a Multi-Site Study of Early Substance Abuse

The importance of including developmental and environmental measures in genetic studies of human pathology is widely acknowledged, but few empirical studies have been published. Barriers include the need for longitudinal studies that cover relevant developmental stages and for samples large enough to deal with the challenge of testing gene–environment–development interaction. A solution to some of these problems is to bring together existing data sets that have the necessary characteristics. As part of the National Institute on Drug Abuse-funded Gene-Environment-Development Initiative, our goal is to identify exactly which genes, which environments, and which developmental transitions together predict the development of drug use and misuse. Four data sets were used of which common characteristics include (1) general population samples, including males and females; (2) repeated measures across adolescence and young adulthood; (3) assessment of nicotine, alcohol, and cannabis use and addiction; (4) measures of family and environmental risk; and (5) consent for genotyping DNA from blood or saliva. After quality controls, 2,962 individuals provided over 15,000 total observations. In the first gene–environment analyses, of alcohol misuse and stressful life events, some significant gene–environment and gene–development effects were identified. We conclude that in some circumstances, already collected data sets can be combined for gene–environment and gene–development analyses. This greatly reduces the cost and time needed for this type of research. However, care must be taken to ensure careful matching across studies and variables

Necrosis related HIF-1α expression predicts prognosis in patients with endometrioid endometrial carcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) plays an essential role in the adaptive response of cells to hypoxia and is associated with aggressive tumour behaviour. We have shown p27^kip1, which is generally reduced in endometrial cancer, to be re-expressed in hypoxic regions. This possibly contributes to survival of cancer cells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of HIF-1α and p27^kipexpression in patients with endometrioid endometrial cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Expression levels of HIF-1α, CAIX, Glut-1, and p27^kip1were analyzed by immunohistochemistry. Percentage of positive cells, staining pattern (perinecrotic, diffuse, or mixed) and presence of necrosis were noted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Necrosis was correlated with shortened disease free survival (DFS) (p <it>= </it>0.008) and overall survival (OS) (p <it>= </it>0.045). For DFS, perinecrotic HIF-1α expression was also prognostic (p <it>= </it>0.044). Moreover, high p27^kip1expression was an additional prognostic factor for these patients with perinecrotic HIF-1α expression. In multivariate Cox regression, perinecrotic HIF-expression emerged as an independent prognostic factor. Perinecrotic HIF-1α expression was significantly associated with CAIX and Glut-1 expression, pointing towards functional HIF-1.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with endometrioid endometrial cancer, necrosis and necrosis-related expression of HIF-1α are important prognostic factors. More aggressive adjuvant treatment might be necessary to improve the outcome of patients with these characteristics.</p

Genome-Wide Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Alcohol Consumption Across Youth and Early Adulthood

The public health burden of alcohol is unevenly distributed across the life course, with levels of use, abuse, and dependence increasing across adolescence and peaking in early adulthood. Here, we leverage this temporal patterning to search for common genetic variants predicting developmental trajectories of alcohol consumption. Comparable psychiatric evaluations measuring alcohol consumption were collected in three longitudinal community samples ( N = 2,126, obs = 12,166). Consumption-repeated measurements spanning adolescence and early adulthood were analyzed using linear mixed models, estimating individual consumption trajectories, which were then tested for association with Illumina 660W-Quad genotype data (866,099 SNPs after imputation and QC). Association results were combined across samples using standard meta-analysis methods. Four meta-analysis associations satisfied our pre-determined genome-wide significance criterion (FDR &lt; 0.1) and six others met our ‘suggestive’ criterion (FDR &lt;0.2). Genome-wide significant associations were highly biological plausible, including associations within GABA transporter 1, SLC6A1 (solute carrier family 6, member 1), and exonic hits in LOC100129340 (mitofusin-1-like). Pathway analyses elaborated single marker results, indicating significant enriched associations to intuitive biological mechanisms, including neurotransmission, xenobiotic pharmacodynamics, and nuclear hormone receptors (NHR). These findings underscore the value of combining longitudinal behavioral data and genome-wide genotype information in order to study developmental patterns and improve statistical power in genomic studies

Kaposi's Sarcoma Associated Herpes Virus (KSHV) Induced COX-2: A Key Factor in Latency, Inflammation, Angiogenesis, Cell Survival and Invasion

Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), an enigmatic endothelial cell vascular neoplasm, is characterized by the proliferation of spindle shaped endothelial cells, inflammatory cytokines (ICs), growth factors (GFs) and angiogenic factors. KSHV is etiologically linked to KS and expresses its latent genes in KS lesion endothelial cells. Primary infection of human micro vascular endothelial cells (HMVEC-d) results in the establishment of latent infection and reprogramming of host genes, and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is one of the highly up-regulated genes. Our previous study suggested a role for COX-2 in the establishment and maintenance of KSHV latency. Here, we examined the role of COX-2 in the induction of ICs, GFs, angiogenesis and invasive events occurring during KSHV de novo infection of endothelial cells. A significant amount of COX-2 was detected in KS tissue sections. Telomerase-immortalized human umbilical vein endothelial cells supporting KSHV stable latency (TIVE-LTC) expressed elevated levels of functional COX-2 and microsomal PGE2 synthase (m-PGES), and secreted the predominant eicosanoid inflammatory metabolite PGE2. Infected HMVEC-d and TIVE-LTC cells secreted a variety of ICs, GFs, angiogenic factors and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), which were significantly abrogated by COX-2 inhibition either by chemical inhibitors or by siRNA. The ability of these factors to induce tube formation of uninfected endothelial cells was also inhibited. PGE2, secreted early during KSHV infection, profoundly increased the adhesion of uninfected endothelial cells to fibronectin by activating the small G protein Rac1. COX-2 inhibition considerably reduced KSHV latent ORF73 gene expression and survival of TIVE-LTC cells. Collectively, these studies underscore the pivotal role of KSHV induced COX-2/PGE2 in creating KS lesion like microenvironment during de novo infection. Since COX-2 plays multiple roles in KSHV latent gene expression, which themselves are powerful mediators of cytokine induction, anti-apoptosis, cell survival and viral genome maintainence, effective inhibition of COX-2 via well-characterized clinically approved COX-2 inhibitors could potentially be used in treatment to control latent KSHV infection and ameliorate KS